Will Chappell Roan’s ‘The Subway’ Stick Around Longer Than ‘The Giver’ on the Hot 100?

After dropping “The Giver,” a stab at country-pop that lasted just eight weeks on the Billboard Hot 100 after debuting at No. 4, Chappell Roan unleashed her newest single, “The Subway.” Once again teaming with Dan Nigro, the 2025 Grammy winner for best new artist instantly earned the highest-charting Hot 100 hit of her career when “The Subway” launched at No. 3 on the Aug. 16 chart.

Though she insists her second album isn’t coming anytime soon, the performance of “The Subway” offers valuable insight into Roan’s ranking in the Top 40 landscape as she moves further away from her breakthrough debut album, The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess.

Will “The Subway” last longer on the Hot 100 than “The Giver?” Does “Subway” have the potential to become Chappel’s first Hot 100 No. 1 hit? Billboard staffers discuss these questions and more below.

1. Chappel Roan’s “The Subway” debuted at No. 3 on the Hot 100 this week. Is that higher, lower or about where you would have expected this song to debut? 

Hannah Dailey: Given how long it took for her to release “The Subway” after first performing it at Gov Ball — 14! Months! — I’m pleasantly surprised that “The Subway” debuted as high as it did. Though I feel confident it would have had a straight shot to No. 1 if she’d released it a year ago when everyone was still freshly caught up in the Chappell craze, at this point, I would’ve expected it to enter the chart in the mid- or lower top 10 range. She and her team should be really happy.

Stephen Daw: Just a little bit lower than I’d initially thought. After seeing the massive streaming numbers this song was pulling in during its first few days, I thought it had a better-than-average chance of taking the top spot on the Hot 100. Still, though, debuting a song at your highest chart position to date is no small feat!

Kyle Denis: This is a bit higher than I expected! “The Giver” was fairly divisive, but clearly not enough to overshadow the anticipation for “The Subway.” It also helps that “The Subway” debuted alongside its exceptional music video, marking Chappell’s first proper music video since “Hot to Go” two years ago.

Lyndsey Havens: My instinct was to say higher, but as I think about it, a No. 3 debut is pretty much exactly what I’d expect for “Subway” for two reasons. It’s a natural debut spot for Roan, who has become something of a chart mainstay these last couple of years. Plus, given the more ballad-inspired nature of the song, it fits in perfectly with what else is resonating right now — look no further than previous chart-topper, “Ordinary” by Alex Warren. “The Subway” comes at the right time in both popular music and Roan’s career, as it shows yet another side of the multidimensional pop star, one that’s softer and showcases her incredible vocal prowess — proving that not all hits need to be burning “h-o-t.”

Jason Lipshutz: Higher. Considering that “The Giver” was Roan’s first post-Midwest Princess release, was teased with more fervor than “The Subway” and sounded more uptempo and radio-friendly, I expected that song’s No. 4 debut to serve as a bar that “The Subway” could not hurdle. Yet fans seem to be responding more positively to “The Subway” than to its predecessor, with a huge streaming bow powering an even higher chart launch. As a fan of the new single, I’m pleasantly surprised that “The Subway” is now Roan’s highest-charting hit.

2. Was “The Subway” worth the hype? Is it a worthy follow-up to “The Giver?” 

Hannah Dailey: Yes and yes. From the sharp lyrics to Chappell’s stunning vocal delivery — and of course, that glorious outro that hits just as hard as the first time you heard it every time you press “play” — this song is truly a fantastic piece that stands apart from everything else in the top 40 right now in the best way. “The Giver” is a great song, but everything about the rollout for “Subway” feels way more thoughtful and complete. I definitely think she leveled up here.

Stephen Daw: This song absolutely met and surpassed my expectations, and is a phenomenal improvement on what she set up with “The Giver,” all the way down to her strategy when rolling it out. She and Dan Nigro managed to keep the soul of the song intact while changing around some arrangements and adding small production flourishes to make the studio version stand apart from her live performances. Even fans who have been listening to bootlegged live versions for well over a year will keep going back to the studio recording to find the new bits they love.

Kyle Denis: I think so! I can already tell this will have more staying power than “The Giver” on both my daily personal playlist and the Hot 100. Quite simply, “The Subway” is a better execution of Chappell’s vision than “The Giver.” The latter attempted to capture arena-sized Shania Twain-esque country-pop but lacked the necessary punchiness; the former effectively channels the yearning timbre of The Cranberries’ Dolores O’Riordan. “The Subway” isn’t just a worthy follow-up to “The Giver,” it’s also one of my favorite pop songs of the year so far.

Lyndsey Havens: Totally. “The Subway” is a really gorgeous song — and both from a skillset and thematic point of view, it follows “The Giver” nicely. Much like “Subway,” “Giver” showed an entirely new country side of Roan. And I think any fan appreciates when an artist not only walks a new path, but pulls it off this well. Lyrically, you could argue that there’s a thread between giving too much in a relationship that results in losing the girl (“Subway”) — but that’s just one line of thinking. The main takeaway, I think, is that Roan isn’t leaving any stone unturned when it comes to her sonic evolution, and how lucky are we to be along for that ride?

Jason Lipshutz: “The Subway” better showcases Chappell Roan’s respective skill set than “The Giver”: whereas the latter was marked by winking innuendos and genre exploration, “The Subway” utilizes the pop star’s knack for sweeping emotion, presented here in a lush alt-pop landscape and accentuated by a heart-wrenched outro. If “The Giver” felt like an unexpected detour, “The Subway” centers Chappell and sounds like it could become one of her defining songs. So, yes, very much worth the hype.
 
3. “The Giver,” Chappell’s only other release of 2025 so far, debuted at No. 4 and spent just eight weeks on the Hot 100. Do you expect “The Subway” to stick around a little longer? 

Hannah Dailey: I definitely think this song has the capacity to be a lasting hit, especially if Chappell continues to promote it. I could see it easily locking down a semi-permanent spot in the top 10 or maybe even reaching No. 1 at some point. But even if she does just let “The Subway” chug along on its own following this initial round of promo, I’ll be surprised if it completely falls off the chart any time soon. That outro is just too addicting; fans aren’t going to quit listening on repeat for a long, long time.

Stephen Daw: I think so. While “The Giver” was (and still is) a great song, it felt like Chappell and her team put a lot of effort into the weeks leading up to the track’s release, and then offered little else once fans had the song. The way they approached “The Subway,” meanwhile, has felt different, and its release felt much more like an event that got fans around the world talking. If she can get more radio stations to start picking this song up in the coming weeks, I could see “The Subway” becoming a runaway hit that hovers around the top 40, much like “Pink Pony Club” has continued to do for this entire year.

Kyle Denis: I definitely think “The Subway” will stick around longer than “The Giver.” Theoretically, “Subway” shouldn’t have to battle against a “Pink Pony Club” re-peak, and sonically, it’s far more in line with the sound fans and casual listeners have come to expect from Chappell. With a music video in tow and radio already latching on, I expect “The Subway” to stick around well into the fall.

Lyndsey Havens: Not necessarily. With the music video already out, I wouldn’t be surprised if it enjoys a similar lifespan on the chart. And in a way, I wouldn’t be mad if it falls off soon… only because Roan has proven that good things always come back around. And I have no doubt that if and when these songs end up on a project, their staying power will be much stronger.

Jason Lipshutz: Yeah, “The Subway” sounds like the more enduring hit. Although “The Giver” has the hook and tempo of a country-pop track that could cross over to top 40 radio, “The Subway” contains the emotional wallop that made “Pink Pony Club” a months-long smash for Roan. Make no mistake — as a fan, I want Chappell to keep taking left-field chances like “The Giver” and expand her aesthetic. Yet “The Subway” exists more squarely in her pocket of commercial success, so I’d expect it to be around the upper reaches of the Hot 100 for a bit.

4. Chappell recently confirmed that her second album isn’t coming anytime soon. How do you anticipate that might impact the long-term performance of “The Subway?” 

Hannah Dailey: It’s very possible that people’s hype for “The Subway” will die down more quickly now that we know it’s not directly leading to a Midwest Princess follow-up, but… I almost wonder if removing that anticipation from the equation will actually enable fans to enjoy the song even more than they would have otherwise. Without any album noise diluting the conversation, people can just appreciate “The Subway” for what it is, coming back again and again and getting more out of the song than they would have if they’d just been treating it as merely one taste of a bigger project to come.

Stephen Daw: With the single-into-album release structure most artists take today, that leads to pretty natural boosts for singles on the charts once the album they’re a part of is out. So, Chappell not releasing an album for a little while could very well mean that “The Subway” doesn’t get the elongated shelf-life that her fans would want to see for it. But, stranger things have happened on the charts — a fictional K-pop band is currently locking down the No. 1 spot! Anything can happen!

Kyle Denis: As it stands, I think it can go either way. “Good Luck, Babe!” became one of her defining hits without ever being attached to a larger project, so “Subway” could certainly replicate that trajectory. On the other hand, if “Subway” peters off a bit earlier than expected, an album release almost always gives the focus singles a second wind. Right now, I’m of the mind that “Subway” will be just fine without an album on the horizon.

Lyndsey Havens: Though I doubt it’s intentional, I think the long wait can only benefit any singles that come until the album. We’ve seen how well Chappell does over time; in fact, the lengthy timespan between the release of The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess and its chart success is a huge part of Roan’s story as a rising star. If there is a long gap between these singles and an album — assuming they will even be on her next project — that only helps them to be enjoyed all over again.

Jason Lipshutz: It’s tough to say, since streaming listeners aren’t likely to play a song more or less often due to the rumored release window of its host album. If we don’t get any new Chappell music for a while following “The Subway,” that may extend its mainstream shelf life, since it will have less competition from other potential songs from her highly anticipated Midwest Princess follow-up. But if we do get a new album sooner rather than later, “The Subway” might be one of the stronger tracks on it! I think that, whether Roan is telling the truth about her second album or if she’s setting up fans for a surprise, “The Subway” is going to stand on its own as a hit single.

5. “Good Luck, Babe!” and “Pink Pony Club” both peaked at No. 4 on the Hot 100. What advice would you give Chappel to get “The Subway” to the top spot and claim her first No. 1 single? 

Hannah Dailey: Get on TV and sing. That’s it. “Good Luck, Babe!” and “Pink Pony Club” both took off with a lot of help from Chappell’s string of magnetic festival sets in 2024, because there’s a special sort of magic that’s embedded into each one of her songs that doesn’t fully unlock until she performs them live. If we could just get one definitive performance of “The Subway” on a late-night show, there would be no stopping this song.

Stephen Daw: Outside of pushing for more radio play, I’d love to see her start performing this song live in as many formats as she possibly can. Morning shows? Late-night talk shows? The upcoming MTV Video Music Awards? I think making her voice inescapable could make a big difference for the future of “The Subway.”

Kyle Denis: This is the kind of song that just needs one major performance, preferably one that airs on national TV. Chappell could easily shut down the VMAs or any fall or winter awards show with a rousing performance of “Subway.” After that bridge/outro gets its big moment, it’s outta here! 

Lyndsey Havens: Keep us waiting, girl. (Mostly) everything about Roan’s rise has felt slow and steady — at least from the outside looking in — so there’s no reason to rush anything now or push for promotional tactics that feel inauthentic. I wouldn’t be shocked if, over time — even if it takes five years, as she teased of her second album’s timeline — “The Subway” gains in all metrics naturally. As Roan said herself on “The Giver,” “I get the job done.” And I have no doubts about that.

Jason Lipshutz: We need an epic live performance of “The Subway” — which we already got last summer, when Roan debuted the track in front of various festival crowds. Now that a studio version of the song has been released, however, let’s hope a splashy primetime performance (maybe at the upcoming VMAs?) helps its momentum surge, and “The Subway” becomes a very worthy first chart-topper for Chappell.