What Does the No. 1 Debut of ‘Vampire’ Mean for Olivia Rodrigo’s Career Going Into Her Second Album?

One of the most-anticipated returns of the year in pop or rock has come with an appropriately major chart entrance: Olivia Rodrigo‘s “Vampire,” lead single from her September-scheduled sophomore album Guts, debuts at No. 1 on the Billboard Hot 100 dated July 15.

Replacing Morgan Wallen’s 13-week No. 1 “Last Night,” the unpredictable ballad “Vampire” becomes Rodrigo’s third single to debut at No. 1 on the Hot 100, following Sour advance singles “Drivers License” and “Good 4 U.” The debut marks her first Hot 100 entry of any kind since the chart week of Sour‘s release two years ago, as Rodrigo had not previously released any new music of her own following her debut LP.

What does the “Vampire” bow mean for Rodrigo at this point in her career? And what might be next to come from her musically? Billboard staffers discuss these questions and more below.

1. It looked a little neck-and-neck with Morgan Wallen’s “Last Night” there for a minute, but “Vampire” secures a debut atop the Hot 100 this week. Do you see this as a particularly impressive or meaningful accomplishment for Olivia Rodrigo, or is it mostly sorta par for the course for an artist who’s now clearly one of the biggest pop/rock stars in the world?  

Hannah Dailey: This would be a huge achievement for any artist who had such a colossal debut, not just Olivia. Seemingly everybody in the world was holding their breath waiting to see if what she did next could even compare to “drivers license” or Sour, much less match its peak on the very first week. This No. 1 isn’t just a No. 1 — it’s confirmation that she’s not merely a one-hit wonder or a passing trend, but a full-fledged artist that’s here to stay.

Kyle Denis: I think the first–week success of “Vampire” is impressive in the sense that Olivia clearly has commercial and cultural pull beyond the realm of Sour. Granted the sonic and visual aesthetics of “Vampire” and Guts aren’t worlds away from that of Sour, but the song’s robust debut proves that people aren’t tired of it yet. From a real-life connection that grounds the drama of her lyrics to meaty hooks with big, sweeping vocals, Olivia has perfected her smash hit formula. Nevertheless, she set the bar so high with Sour and its singles that anything other than a No. 1 debut would have felt a little bit underwhelming (which, admittedly, is kind of crazy given how hard it is to debut atop the Hot 100, but here we are). The true test, however, will be whether “Vampire” can hold off “Last Night” for more than one week, especially once the comeback hype fades away. 

Lyndsey Havens: I think this is incredibly impressive for Olivia — she made history! With this No. 1 debut, she becomes the first artist to debut lead singles from her first two albums atop the tally. And she becomes the youngest artist to ever debut three No. 1 songs in the Hot 100’s 60+ year history. The cherry on top, of course, is that she derailed the runway train that is Morgan Wallen’s “Last Night,” which has made history of its own as the longest-running country No. 1 in Hot 100 history. For a while there, it seemed that only Taylor Swift could dethrone him, and that fact that Rodrigo was the one to do it is, indeed, very impressive.

Jason Lipshutz: Any No. 1 debut on the Hot 100 is meaningful, but the bow of “Vampire” represents a particularly impressive feat for Rodrigo: not only does she kick off her sophomore campaign with a song that carries over the momentum from Sour, but does so by simultaneously toppling a smash that had spent multiple months in that No. 1 spot. Rodrigo returning to the top of the Hot 100 chart isn’t shocking, considering the monumental success of everything she’s done before “Vampire,” but the debut immediately dispels anything resembling a sophomore slump.

Andrew Unterberger: Impressive. I think that while some folks might’ve looked at her not exactly blowing away a song that’s been around as long as “Last Night” as a sign that maybe the return wasn’t as expected, the truth is just that “Last Night” is still really, really big — a consistent top performer in streams, sales and radio — and isn’t easy to depose, even after 13 weeks on top. Plus, she did it without a ton of promo beyond social media posting and a music video, and only a clean edit as a supplementary version of the song.

2. “Vampire” is already Rodrigo’s third song to debut at No. 1 on the Hot 100, following Sour advance singles “Drivers License” and “Good 4 U.” Both of those songs stuck around the chart’s top tier for a good while — do you expect “Vampire” will do the same?  

Hannah Dailey: I think so. There’s just something about the way Olivia’s hooks and vocal delivery stick out from the rest of the noise. I think people will continue coming back to “Vampire” over and over again in the coming weeks, because it still feels fresh after each and every listen.

Kyle Denis: I certainly hope so! Personal feelings aside, I think “Vampire” should stick around the top of the Hot 100 for a minute. The window between the release of “Vampire” and Guts is shorter than the one between “Drivers License” and Sour, which should help the song avoid losing steam before the full album release gives it a second wind. “Vampire” also has ample room to grow on radio, and its sound should help it traverse different formats, to some extent. Add all this to the fact that Olivia is one of the most consistent streaming artists out right now, “Vampire” should be just fine.

Lyndsey Havens: I don’t — but not because of the song, rather because of its timing. “Vampire” is in many ways the love child of those previous No. 1s — with the pop balladry of “Drivers License” and the electrifying aggression of “Good 4 U.” It’s an epic sonic journey that fits alongside Billie Eilish’s “Happier Than Ever” and the newer Renee Rapp single “Snow Angel.” And yet, its arrival is more like a layup… knocking Wallen down and setting the stage for Swift to dominate this week with her new Taylor’s Version of Speak Now. 

Jason Lipshutz: Yes, considering the level of general interest in Rodrigo, the expectation that pop radio will pick up her latest single with the same fervor as her past hits, and the reality that “Vampire” really is as good as advertised. The new single doesn’t contain an immediate hook, but offers the same type of emotional release as “Drivers License,” at a moment when Rodrigo’s music is much more of a proven commodity across platforms. Maybe “Vampire” doesn’t log a ton of weeks at No. 1 considering its current (and incoming) competition near the top of the Hot 100, but I’d be surprised if the song doesn’t log a bunch of weeks in the top 10.

Andrew Unterberger: I could see a “Good 4 U” style trajectory: Just the one debut week at No. 1, but a lot of time in the top 10. “Last Night” seems likely to re-pass it next week with its radio advantage, which should take Rodrigo some time still to make up even if it does ultimately become a top 40 smash. And then it’s about to get really, really crowded on the Hot 100 with some big-name releases this July — and perhaps even a second Guts single before too long.

3. Unlike most stars of her size, Rodrigo was not particularly active as a recording artist in between albums — with no one-off singles, features, bonus tracks or collabs outside of her High School Musical: The Musical: The Series contributions. Do you think “Vampire” and the initial reception for it have validated that strategy, or do you think she could’ve returned with greater momentum if she’d been a little present in pop music the last year and a half?  

Hannah Dailey: I think the full-stop break really worked in her favor. The anticipation tacked on a lot of pressure for her to live up to her debut, for sure, but it also set her up for a lot of eyes and ears to be tuned in to her next move. And even though a rigid album cycle like the one unfolding for Guts is a more traditional way of packaging music, it stands out because of how freely and frequently artists have been dropping music in the post-COVID pandemic age. I think people are ready again to savor big statements, defined eras and one-after-another announcements/releases.

Kyle Denis: I think the silence helped her a lot. Sour was incredibly massive, and Olivia dominated the zeitgeist for nearly an entire calendar year, something that has gotten much harder to do as social media continues to chop pop culture into an ever-growing number of silos. Not only were the album’s radio singles among the year’s biggest hits, but every album track has also shifted at least one million units and several of them went had semi-viral moments of their own.

Olivia could have been in real danger of overexposing herself if she continued to stay omnipresent — and we all know how fickle pop culture can be when one person is on top for too long. Moreover, the time away allowed Olivia to live her life (as close to normal as a world-famous teenager can get) and get inspiration for a song that pulls from those experiences in the same way that “Drivers License” and the rest of Sour did. Olivia was in a rare place where continued presence as a recording artist might have resulted in less momentum for her next proper single and album era, so I think she made the right choice.

Lyndsey Havens: I think when it comes to a talent like Rodrigo, either would have worked. Even when she was on cycle with Sour, it never felt like oversaturation — she and her team played their cards right and seemed intentional about where and when she appeared. That said, I think part of why “Vampire” works so well is because of what she did do in that time off: she lived. As rumors circulate online about the “blood sucker” in question here, this song only exists — and is delivered with as much conviction — because Rodrigo had the time to enjoy the last bit of her teenage years. And now, she’s kicking off her 20s with a whole lot of bite.

Jason Lipshutz: “Vampire” debuting at No. 1 couldn’t possibly be more of a validation of Rodrigo’s strategy to limit her new music until her sophomore album was ready to roll. Interest in the new single reached a fever pitch upon its release, partly because the world hadn’t been given any stopgap material after Sour — i.e., nothing that could have deflated the level of hype around “Vampire” by satisfying the hunger for her next studio offering. Rodrigo certainly doesn’t have to abide by this playbook forever, but the tactic of disappearing, crafting a new statement and centering full attention on that comeback single paid off in a big way; I wouldn’t be surprised to see other artists try to re-create it in the coming months and years.

Andrew Unterberger: I don’t know that the streaming and sales numbers would’ve been any different if we’d gotten a couple one-offs or feature appearances from Rodrigo in the interim, but the feeling might not quite have been as exciting. It’s pretty rare to feel like music from a major artist is a precious and rare commodity in 2023 — not when so many of our biggest stars are (understandably) releasing a near-constant stream of new music to make sure they remain a factor in streaming and on social media — so for Rodrigo to draw a hard line in the sand between album eras gives her new drops a weight most of her peers can’t quite match. It’s not a strategy many artists have the discipline or the authority to match, but it certainly is working for her.

4. “Vampire” blends the familiar and the unfamiliar for Rodrigo — it’s another piano-led kiss-off, which Sour packed plenty of, but its shifts in tempo and dynamics feel like new territory. Are you generally satisfied with this as a comeback single for Rodrigo, or was there something else you might’ve rather heard from her?  

Hannah Dailey: I’m really happy with “Vampire,” and I love that she chose to make it a single. It absolutely showcases her ability to grow while staying true to the original sound she carved out for herself early on, which is all you could ever want from a legendary artist in the making. But something that’s nagged at me since the song dropped is that it doesn’t quite feel like it should’ve been the lead single.

I think it has something to do with the subject matter; “Vampire” is not as relatable as any of her previous work was, which is fine. I just have a sneaking suspicion it would’ve worked better as a followup single rather than the flagship, which typically feels more wide reaching and summative of the album ahead. Once I hear the full album, I feel like there will be another song on there that’ll make me go, “Why wasn’t that the lead?” But who knows? She’s clearly doing something right.

Kyle Denis: I am very satisfied with “Vampire” as a comeback single. The song accomplishes exactly what the lead single for a sophomore album should, it feels familiar while incrementally pushing Olivia’s sound to new places — or at least to places she only briefly visited on Sour. There isn’t anything else I would’ve rather heard from her just yet. This was the perfect sound for this specific single. 

Lyndsey Havens: As an artist who was, in many ways, integral to the resurgence of — and for her younger fans, introduction to — pop-punk in the mainstream, I really wasn’t sure where she would take her comeback single. I thought, at one point, she would venture in a dance direction à la Dua Lipa… but I’m pretty all-in on what she and producer Dan Nigro did with “Vampire” because it blends the two types of sounds she did so well on Sour. 

Jason Lipshutz: “Vampire” is the ideal for a major pop star like Rodrigo on the precipice of a second album: the song gestures toward the hallmarks of her debut album (specifically the balladry of her first big hit, “Drivers License”), while also progressing her formula, developing a sonic theatricality and vocal rawness that never reached this degree on Sour. The song isn’t a hard left turn, and it didn’t need to be — instead, fans get the Rodrigo that captivated them two years ago, with a handful of new sounds and ideas to deploy.

Andrew Unterberger: Part of me was definitely hoping for “Vampire” to be a jaw-dropper right away, to give me the kind of WHOA WHAT’S GOING ON HERE moment I felt when the crunchy guitars kicked in during my first listen to “Brutal.” But the song is excellent, and while a piano-led ballad is certainly not a new mode for Rodrigo, the song packs enough surprises in its verse and chorus mutations that it hardly feels like she was playing it safe in her comeback. Ultimately, it’s a fine comeback — and since Rodrigo has already very clearly defined herself as an albums artist, the totality of Guts is really going to be more of the thing for her anyway.

5. Rodrigo told Billboard that her upcoming sophomore album Guts is “really, incredibly diverse.” Assuming that means the next single will be fairly different than “Vampire,” what sort of song might you like to hear from her next?  

Hannah Dailey: Hmmm. I want to hear some love songs. “Vampire” is definitely super different from her past music, but all in all, everything she’s released so far has been quite angsty and heartbroken. I want to hear what a completed, fully produced, earnestly, unabashedly romantic ballad by Olivia Rodrigo sounds like, because I know she has it in her. And whether it’s on Guts or another future album, it’s going to be magnificent. 

Kyle Denis: I kind of want Olivia to get a bit weird with the next single! Give me some cool glitchy electropop paired with slick “Favorite Crime”-esque harmonies in the vein of Imogen Heap. 

Lyndsey Havens: Maybe there will be a dance track after all!

Jason Lipshutz: The obvious answer is another pop-punk ripper in the vein of “good 4 u,” but I’m also hopeful that Guts explores the more muscular garage-rock chug of one of my favorite Sour songs, “jealousy, jealousy.” Give me more guitar fuzz and blurry “woo’s,” please!

Andrew Unterberger: Rodrigo’s used the word “fun” to describe Guts — which, great though her first album was, I don’t think was a descriptor that Sour‘s fans would’ve reached for to describe any of its highlights. I don’t know what Fun Olivia Rodrigo sounds like, but I hope to find out with her next single.